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Day one of 2014: The Assam Drama

by Dr.Praveen Patil


Posted on 2014-04-07 14:22:36  




On the first day of India’s most important election, we at 5Forty3 are traveling to the North-Eastern state of Assam, a very difficult geography to cover for our young team even under ordinary circumstances let alone in these historic elections. We have created some fantastic initiatives on 5forty3 to give you a great election trend coverage (No Exit Polling).

Backend: At the backend is our server which records live data from field workers spread across the geography who are all using unique mobile digitization technology to record and transmit ground reports simultaneously. These backend data fields are populated by our trained staff who are working concurrently at different vantage points by strategically connecting to specific polling booth areas. We have spent a mini fortune for this exercise, but are hoping that many of you readers will support us through this endeavour to recover costs (you can do so by clicking here).

We have extensively used RSSI and VWISM to strategically target assembly segments and polling booths of specific parliamentary constituencies to accrue ground reports and data.

Middleware: This is where we compile ground reports and data by utilizing our path-breaking mathematical modelling to analyse data with near 100% accuracy. We also correlate the data findings to our own ethnic-social models of Assam to add weightage accordingly in order to arrive at accurate results. Our unique model not only considers overall Assam social profiling but also sub-regional dynamics and social profile at each district level.

The Presentation:

Assam ground reports till about 1 PM suggest a clear BJP surge in pockets. The day began big for the BJP, which suggests that neutral self-interest voters are looking towards NaMo and BJP with hope. One more interesting trend of the early Polling picture was a clear division of Muslim votes between Congress and AGP, which suggests that the BJP tactic of not tying up with AGP has prevented Muslim consolidation in favour of the ruling Congress party. The caveat though is that this region which is going to polls today has little Muslim concentration (in at least 3 parliamentary seats it is as low as under 6%).

As the day started wearing out, Congress started to inch closer to the BJP. The superior ground strength and the presence of massive Congress apparatus seem to be helping the Congress party. One more significant detail is that the early voting was heavily upper caste dominated (Brahmins, Ahoms etc.), whereas the post noon voting seems to be more among the SC-ST voters – BJP has possibly not yet been able to make that big breakthrough among this so called “weaker sections” at least in Assam and East India.

By 2 PM, it is interestingly poised with BJP still slightly ahead in overall terms but the strength of the BJP lead declining considerably and Congress growing stronger in the heat of the afternoon. One must wonder if the same old malaise of BJP voters’ (essentially middle class) gross inability to withstand summer heat is playing up once again (at least here in Assam).

AGP, which had considerable strength here once upon a time is a very distant third while AUDF simply seems to have disappeared. The AGP votes seem to have more-or-less shifted to the BJP in 2014, whereas Congress may have gobbled up a lot of “others”. The next 3-4 hours could be crucial, for it would give us a far better picture of what exactly is happening. The first day of this most historic election has been as dramatic as one would have expected, now we must keep a close watch on the turnout figures as our ground workers are suggesting huge numbers.

Important Note: We are not doing any Exit Polls (lest EC get weird ideas) and are only giving you electoral trends based on ground reports and data analysis.


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