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Good Evening India: Is NaMo Tsunami a reality?

by Dr.Praveen Patil


Posted on 2014-04-10 12:49:48  




What does the first day of 2014 marathon portray? It looks like the Tsunami called NaMo has more-or-less uprooted everything on its way in the Heartland which include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. In western Uttar Pradesh there is almost a sweep like situation for Modi’s “United spectrum of Hindu Vote” and in Bihar there was absolutely no competition for the saffron brigade. In Madhya Pradesh, apart from Chhindwara, where Kamalnath is sailing through, BJP seems to be winning big in other seats (the hailstorm scare was just another ‘secular’ mirage).

In western Uttar Pradesh BJP is so ahead that even combining SP and BSP vote-share doesn’t match BJP’s! Of course, this is just at the broader level and we need to do a deeper socio-ethnic analysis to come at a clearer conclusion (which we’ll be doing over the next one or two days). The interior Bihar reports are still being compiled so we need more time to analyse the same (especially because of the bomb blast and minor stampede in which some of our ground staff got hurt).

In Delhi BJP is heading for a clean sweep, yes we are saying this with great deal of responsibility without for a moment forgetting the December election backgrobackbone was not yet ready for Maharashtra for phase one, so we did it the old fashioned way on papers which will be analyzed in the next 36 hours.]

und. Let us quickly look at four Parliamentary seats as examples for the Delhi sweep.

In Haryana, AAP is doing surprisingly well, our own numbers (based on ground reports) are putting it at roughly 14% Vote-Share, which has put it in the 3rd spot in the state. Initial data analysis suggests a close contest between Congress and NDA (BJP+HVC) which is indicative of BJP’s ticket distribution bungling. We of course need to do a deep full-fledged analysis in the next 24 to 36 hours to understand the full import of all the numbers from all the states.

On day one we can certainly project that the Modi phenomenon has had its huge impact in northern India, the question now remains as to whether this will lead to complacency by the BJP workers in the next phases or will it create total panic in the opposition camp and demoralization of opposition cadre.

[Note: We will be doing a thorough analysis of day 1 in the next two days, this is just the end of the day analysis with brief overall picture. Our technological


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