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3 factors of 3 PM on day 1

by Dr.Praveen Patil


Posted on 2014-04-10 12:55:44  




Factor 01: AAP is returning back into the reckoning

  • In Delhi AAP is now at the number two spot behind BJP. Although the overall lead of the BJP is huge (almost double that of AAP), AAP may still manage to salvage something so we will have to do a thorough constituency-wise analysis (which will be done as a part of our post-poll package within 48 hours after polling).
  • AAP seems to have recovered some ground after the initial meltdown in the morning when Congress had overtaken Kejriwal’s party. This is indicative of a decent worker support for AAP which has probably managed to bring in its voters to the polling booths after the initial setback.
  • In Haryana too, surprisingly AAP seems to be the third big player in terms of sheer numbers, behind BJP and Congress, whereas INLD seems to be lagging behind as of now and HVC in any case suffers from limited geographic presence

Factor 02: Congress and the collapse of UPA

  • Except for Haryana where the Congress seems to be still putting up a fight, the party is simply not in contention anywhere in North India (we are not tracking Kerala and our Maharashtra reports are not live but delayed till evening).
  • This of course is a very easy trend that is visible everywhere, for not only Congress party but even its allies are losing badly. Even somebody as big as Ajit Singh seems to be trailing in Baghpat and BJP seems to be literally mauling the Congress party into mincemeat.

Factor 03: BJP all the way in Heartland

  • That BJP would conquer heartland was always known to most political observers, yet what has emerged is something that even many diehard BJP supporters couldn’t have bargained for. In Bihar, BJP is simply bulldozing towards victory without almost any obstacles, while in UP, every other party is chasing BJP but has no fuel in the tank to come any closer.

Caveat: Madhya Pradesh is a strange one out in our pick for today. Our tracker suggests that Congress are actually neck-n-neck with BJP in MP till about 1 PM. There are two issues with these findings, 1) our ground reports are incomplete as of now as we have to sill receive reports from interiors and 2) Our ground reporting mechanism in MP is a little skewed as we have seen even during assembly elections of late last year.


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