2014: THE ELECTION THAT CHALLENGED DILLI AND STILL EMERGED VICTORIOUS
Posted on 2014-04-15 13:01:47
A few years ago when a Lucknowi embroidery shop was being inaugurated in Godowlia, Varanasi, close to the Ganga Ghat, a bull forcefully entered the premises even before the red-ribbon could be ostensibly cut by a VIP. The owner of that establishment considers that as a good luck charm and allows that bull (the Nandi of Hindu beliefs) free access into his shop every day. As if on cue, the Nandi walks into the shop every evening while ordinary humans shop around him without batting an eyelid!
As Benares was turned into a television spectacle for the last few weeks with literally hundreds of media personalities occupying every vantage point, ordinary Kashi residents just looked at the whole exercise with amusement. A bull story in Benares has far more longevity than Dilli media’s pet theories. The same Dilli media told us just a few months ago that Modi would never find political traction beyond Gujarat. The same Dilli media told us forcefully just a few weeks ago that Modi will never find allies and partners in his political journey. The same Dilli media was peddling theories of anti-Modi vote consolidation in heartland just a few days ago.
Meanwhile India just kept laughing at Dilli through these cock and bull stories as the nation went into an overdrive to ensure that all obstacles on Modi’s march towards Delhi would be cleared without delay. The mandate of 2014 is a people’s mandate in the truest sense, for ordinary voters themselves organized around the polling booths to disregard all local considerations and simply trust one man!
The more one looks at the numbers, the more one realizes how this was a mandate of hope, akin to 1984. Now, just a day before the counting of votes, all we have to consider is what could be the upper limit of the Modi mandate. Will it cross 272? Will it go beyond 300? Every scenario is in the realm of possibility, for wave elections are beyond mathematical constructs. I for one wouldn’t be surprised if BJP on its own gets beyond a simple majority. In fact, I have been long arguing the logic of a return of single party national government as the extension of clear state verdicts since the turn of the millennium (have always argued that the surprise victory of Congress in 2009 followed the same electoral logic of clearer mandates).
The Upside Potential
As most post-polls have been predicting, a BJP victory in 2014 is now a forgone conclusion. What really matters in tomorrow’s counting is the scale of the Modi mandate, for we have always seen in the past that poll surveys inherently tend to under-estimate front runner’s victory margins due to mathematical corrections of statistical aberrations. So, if BJP is winning beyond 240 seats tomorrow, where are those seats coming from?
- Most of our survey models and vote-to-seat conversions are limited by historic electoral data as a factorial weightage because of BJP’s past weaknesses beyond the heartland. For instance, although BJP is gaining a huge swing in states like West Bengal, Assam, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Andhra, we are unable to really project that as commensurate tangible gains for BJP – these states could be an important X factor in tomorrow’s results
- Another X factor are the set of Congress ruled states like Maharashtra, Karnataka and Haryana where again BJP may have been under-estimated by pollsters due to localized factors like over-representation to ruling state parties (respondents do tend to lie about voting preferences towards local ruling parties)
- The third X factor is the under-estimation of a wave. Just like we under-estimated BJP’s performance in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan a few months ago, pollsters may be giving a few extra seats to the opposition by default as their models are designed in such a way to allocate seats based on certain threshold of vote percentage.
Based on our numbers, we have created a table for tomorrow’s projections for different states. This should be the ideal result of tomorrow purely going by our total sample-size of 45690 respondents across 8 out of 9 phases of election. Yet, a wave election is beyond ordinary numbers and could surprise us all with the upside potential of the Modi wave.
United Spectrum of Hindu Vote
We have been talking about the United Spectrum of Hindu Vote for almost 6 months now and Dilli based media is slowly waking up to this phenomenon, although they haven’t yet called it out in such raw terms. The fact that Modi has reversed the entire Mandalization process is something that will define 2014 for future historians, what will stun them further is the coming of age of the Dalit vote which has finally started incorporating itself into the broader Hindu spectrum! This is the ultimate nightmare of a left-liberal Hindu hating Dilli intellectual, this coming together of the entire Hindu vote!
Entire “secular” construct that was built around the division of Hindu votes is an edifice that is crumbling and the average Dilli intellectual is facing an existential crisis today, for he doesn’t know how to react to this new electoral reality. No wonder we are seeing some crazy analysis in TV studios of how Congress (and even the Gandhis) have failed massively in 2014 to put up a viable fight against Modi who is “only winning because of packaging himself” as a better alternative. Truth is that Modi would have been unstoppable even if UPA had given a half decent government over the last decade, for the united spectrum of Hindu votes is an idea whose time has come and no power on Earth can now stop it!