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POLITICS

19 May 2019 21:47

Evening Report – Final Phase: Tsunamo 2019 has hit India

Dr. Praveen Patil

Final phase analysis and full projection show that BJP is hitting 300+


POLITICS

19 May 2019 15:24

2 PM Report – Final Phase: Will Kolkata finally fall? And the UP final Projections

Dr. Praveen Patil

At the post noon hour on the final day of voting for 2019 elections, we make our final projections for the key state of Uttar Pradesh


POLITICS

19 May 2019 08:20

Final Phase: Morning Report – Kashi at the centre of Indian political landscape again

Dr. Praveen Patil

The final day of polling begins as India's destiny awaits a new dawn


POLITICS

16 May 2019 22:57

Endgame: The Bottomline of 2019 Elections

Dr. Praveen Patil

A detailed analysis of how Modi is achieving an unprecedented return majority in the 2019 elections.


POLITICS

12 May 2019 20:44

Phase six: Evening Report – Bhopal avenges the “Hindu Terror” tag!

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP has a surprisingly strong day in Madhya Pradesh and a reasonably good showing in Uttar Pradesh


POLITICS

12 May 2019 14:35

2 PM Update Phase Six: What is common between Delhi sweep and Bengali March?

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP is sweeping all 7 seats in Delhi and 9 seats in Haryana this afternoon, even as the saffron march continues in Bengal!


POLITICS

12 May 2019 07:37

Phase 6 Morning Report: 2019 is the election of India’s Bharosa on Modi

Dr. Praveen Patil

After 5 phases, the election is already over for all practical purposes and intents, what we are now looking at is how big will the Modi victory be.


POLITICS

10 May 2019 09:16

Phase 5: BJP maintains its dominance despite headwinds

Dr. Praveen Patil

UP, Bihar and Rajasthan saw a saffron sweep on Monday, even as BJP continued its eastern march, but Madhya Pradesh stuck a discordant note.


POLITICS

06 May 2019 19:56

5th Phase Evening Report – the west-central zone that is powering Modi’s return now has greater data clarity

Dr. Praveen Patil

Five states that are powering Modi's return are giving a whopping return of 88% MP seats


POLITICS

06 May 2019 14:49

2 PM Update Phase 5: The Bengal Magic

Dr. Praveen Patil

Bengal continues to surprise with saffron surge even in geographies where TMC had swept last time around.


POLITICS

06 May 2019 09:28

Phase 5 Morning Report – Time is running out for the Gandhis

Dr. Praveen Patil

As phase five votes today, our models will be checking for trends to see if there is any alteration from the wave-like election so far.


POLITICS

04 May 2019 16:52

Phase 4 2019 Elections - Final Report

Dr. Praveen Patil

We analyse all the states that voted in phase 4 to visualize how Modi is coming back with a bigger majority in 2019.


POLITICS

02 May 2019 20:06

Uttar Pradesh at the altar of 2019’s destiny

Dr. Praveen Patil

MAPi makes a comprehensive projection for Uttar Pradesh at the midpoint after four phases and 39 seats have already voted


POLITICS

30 April 2019 18:54

How NYAY is hurting Congress in the 2019 Elections!

Dr. Praveen Patil

Data is now showing that not only is awareness low about NYAY, but also it has created a lot of heartburn among those who are aware.


POLITICS

29 April 2019 20:15

Evening Update Phase 4: Modi is coming back with a bigger majority

Dr. Praveen Patil

2019 is now eerily similar to 1984 in terms of voting patterns and trends. Can Modi climb that historic high?


POLITICS

29 April 2019 14:50

2 PM Update Phase 4: BJP inching closer to a clear majority

Dr. Praveen Patil

By noon on the 4th day, it is virtually clear that Congress or the opposition is not putting up a fight in 2019!


POLITICS

29 April 2019 08:17

Phase 4 Morning Report: The day of reckoning in the 2019 election season is here

Dr. Praveen Patil

Before the crucial 4th phase we analyse the Indian swing voter is a unique creature who rarely wants his vote to go in "waste"


POLITICS

26 April 2019 22:11

Phase 3 final analysis: Are we entering wave territory?

Dr. Praveen Patil

In-Depth analysis of Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and Maharashtra after phase 3 elections


POLITICS

23 April 2019 20:42

Phase 3 Evening Report: We are now sure that 2014 was not the Modi peak!

Dr. Praveen Patil

Apart from Uttar Pradesh, everywhere else BJP has done well in this phase of election. UP was always tough in this phase.


POLITICS

23 April 2019 14:18

2 PM Update Phase 3: BJP’s toughest morning yet in 2019

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP is facing some headwinds in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, even as it faces a tougher task in the east today.


POLITICS

23 April 2019 06:52

Phase 3: The last chance for opposition to make a battle of it

Dr. Praveen Patil

A day of reckoning for the socio-political future of court & government interference in Hindu temples


POLITICS

22 April 2019 09:44

Phase 2 of 2019 – The final analysis

Dr. Praveen Patil

We take an in depth look at Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and the eastern states of Bengal & Assam to analyse 2nd phase


POLITICS

19 April 2019 21:14

How alliance politics failed in Karnataka in the face of Modi wave 2.0

Dr. Praveen Patil

The political ramifications of Karnataka will be far and wide!


POLITICS

18 April 2019 20:29

If opposition alliances cannot halt Modi, then who can? – Evening round-up on Phase 2.

Dr. Praveen Patil

In today's polling opposition went through an existential crisis. Can anybody stop Modi now in 2019?


POLITICS

18 April 2019 13:53

The 2 PM update of Phase 2: BJP on track in north & east India, but needs better traction in the south

Dr. Praveen Patil

The eastward march of BJP continues, even as the saffron party holds strong in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar


POLITICS

18 April 2019 07:21

Battle for India enters the second phase: Can the opposition halt the Modi onslaught?

Dr. Praveen Patil

If the signals that emanated from the ground in phase 1 get confirmed today, then the Modi juggernaut is truly daunting for the opposition.


POLITICS

14 April 2019 13:03

The OBC factor – phase 1 of 2019 elections reinforces the 2014 OBC shift towards Modi

Dr. Praveen Patil

Final projections for BJP in Phase 1 show it is likely to either maintain its 2014 position or improve upon it!


POLITICS

12 April 2019 21:31

The phenomenon of disinterested Muslim vote is still a factor in 2019

Dr. Praveen Patil

What are the Muslim voters of western UP telling us, have they simply decided that Modi is now beyond their reach?


POLITICS

11 April 2019 21:48

Day one of Battle for 2019 – it is history in the making!

Dr. Praveen Patil

Comprehensive day one report from all the battleground states. Can BJP create history?


POLITICS

11 April 2019 15:21

India at noon on day one: The eastern saffron surge is the story of the day!

Dr. Praveen Patil

Odisha is the big surprise of day one as Saffron surge here may cause earthquake in Bhubaneswar!


POLITICS

11 April 2019 10:25

The Battle for 2019 begins!

Dr. Praveen Patil

India’s proclivity to hurt herself just after a hard-fought victory is legendary, will 2014 be different?


POLITICS

08 April 2019 17:09

Two states that will determine the fate of 2019 – Part 2: The puzzle of UP

Dr. Praveen Patil

Uttar Pradesh still remains the puzzle of 2019, for BJP needs to cross its peak vote-share here to be safely ahead.


POLITICS

08 April 2019 08:34

Two states that will determine the fate of 2019 – Part 1: The Bengal bonanza

Dr. Praveen Patil

Most definitive answer to the question: Can West Bengal be the Uttar Pradesh of 2019 for the BJP?


POLITICS

02 April 2019 11:43

2014 may not be the Congress party’s nadir... 2019 may yet surpass it

Dr. Praveen Patil

NYAY poll promise is the only thing standing between Congress and total decimation below the historic low of 2014!


POLITICS

30 March 2019 14:42

Indian voter 2019 and the crisis of issues

Dr. Praveen Patil

2019’s big problem is not just a lack of a national leader to take on Modi, but lack of real issues to present an alternate vision for India.


POLITICS

18 July 2018 16:09

The Fallacy of the November Doctrine

Dr. Praveen Patil

Why holding early general elections in November is a potentially disastrous political move that is being floated among the Sangh-BJP circles.


POLITICS

13 May 2018 16:22

Does BJP still have an advantage in Karnataka?

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP has underperformed on election day but still has more seats to defend.


POLITICS

12 May 2018 06:59

Karnataka is Heading in The Saffron Direction

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP is now poised to win the south Indian state of Karnataka despite all the fake polls and false media coverage of "Edge to Congress"


POLITICS

09 May 2018 15:19

The Last Battle of the Dynasty: Part 3: South Karnataka

Dr. Praveen Patil

Modi has dramatically altered the electoral pitch in Karnataka and may have created a wave in a wave-less election!


POLITICS

04 May 2018 18:20

The Last Battle of The Dynasty: Part 2: Madhya Karnataka

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP's march continues in central Karnataka but is not as strong in the Coastal belt.


POLITICS

01 May 2018 10:44

The Last Battle of the Dynasty: Part 1: North Karnataka

Dr. Praveen Patil

BJP is leading by a big margin in the 81 Assembly seats of North Karnataka. Will this lead to a UP like sweep in this Southern state?


POLITICS

06 March 2018 11:11

Congress Mukt Bharat is Still an Unfinished Business

Sandeep Balakrishna

When Congress is in power, it will use every dirty trick in the book to remain there. When not in power, it won’t allow you to even function!


POLITICS

21 February 2018 14:38

Modi's Western Conundrum

Dr. Praveen Patil

How Modi faces an uphill task in the western hemisphere in the run-up to 2019.


POLITICS

13 January 2018 08:58

Is BJP still headed for capturing 50% votes across India?

Dr. Praveen Patil

Almost 70% of the core BJP-RSS vote went to Congress this time, while a section of traditional Congress vote diverted to BJP", averred a local BJP Karyakarta a few days after the November 9th elections, "Pawan Kajal (of Congress) will surely capture the Kangra seat, he had won it as an independent candidate last time again......



POLITICS

09 March 2017 12:17

Can Uttar Pradesh annihilate the NaMo opposition for another decade?

Dr. Praveen Patil

“The values of Sangh flow like blood in my veins… the day I die, I want to be draped in the BJP flag” whispered an audibly emotional and teary eyed Kalyan Singh to a huge gathering of party workers in the Jhulelal Park of Lucknow on January 22nd 2013. It was the homecoming of the prodigal son who had redefined Hindutva of..


POLITICS

21 February 2017 06:44

At the midpoint of Uttar Pradesh elections: Can there be a Saffron wave?

Dr. Praveen Patil

On Saturday evening, the 11th of February, when the import of BJP’s underperformance in the Jatland of western UP which went to polls in the very first phase began to sink in, there was a sense of déjà vuabout Bihar 2015 where again the party had begun to possibly stare at defeat from the throes of victory....



POLITICS

14 February 2017 04:59

BJP is not overwhelming like 2014, but is still in pole position after phase 1

Dr. Praveen Patil

[Disclaimer: 5Forty3 is not reporting, analyzing or projecting any exit-polls and is only making ground assessments based on reports from different parts of Uttar Pradesh].There are 2 great recent examples of electoral battles virtually coming to an end on the very 1st phase of a long election season. The first of course is 2014 general elections when BJP was so overwhelming on day 1 of polling


POLITICS

09 February 2017 08:04

The NaMo wave 2.0 sweeps Uttar Pradesh

Dr. Praveen Patil

After the collapse of Babri Masjid on December 6th 1992, the central Congress government had arbitrarily dismissed all the 4 BJP ruled states of North India – Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh – to impose president’s rule. A year later, when these states went to polls, BJP lost power in three of those which effectively put a pause to all the ‘perceived’ gains of the Hindu nationalist movem...



POLITICS

02 February 2017 07:48

Punjab at crossroads: a prosperous state in ‘invented’ turmoil

Dr. Praveen Patil

A group of Khalistani terrorists hijack a bus and communally segregate the passengers. 8 innocent Hindus are massacred mercilessly while the remaining Sikhs are left scot free. On that midnight hour when India was sleeping, Punjab had turned back the clock to bring old memories of a blood ridden partition to the fore again. This time, the war was not an external one with Muslims, but a battle within.


POLITICS

24 January 2017 10:43

2014 was not the NaMo electoral Mount Everest!

Dr. Praveen Patil

"Unka program hai Indira hatao, mera program hai garibi hatao" those were the exact words uttered by Mrs. Indira Gandhi in a pre-election rally in 1971 when she unleashed the "garibi hatao" slogan that captured India's imagination. Between 1967 and 1971, Congress party led by Indira Gandhi (along with ally CPI in 1971) managed to increase its vote-share from 41% to almost 49%. In absolute terms,...


POLITICS

23 November 2016 14:37

FIRST HINTS OF A NAMO TSUNAMI AFTER DEMONETIZATION

Dr. Praveen Patil

Five years ago, during the peak of Anna Hazare & Baba Ramdev led agitations against corruption, public anger across India was palpable. Literally millions of people in all cities and towns of India would throng local protest destinations with many of them joining in the evening after finishing their day jobs.


POLITICS

14 November 2016 13:29

A SURGICAL SAFFRON SURGE IN HINDI HEARTLAND

Dr. Praveen Patil

Ukraura Mela is one of the many events of the Hindu festive calendar in eastern Uttar Pradesh during the Dussehra-Diwali season and is often seen as the platform to showcase the political power of various Bahubalisof Azamgarh. This year, during that Mela, there was a massive gun battle that resulted in at least a dozen people being injured. It was a mini-war between two huge Bhandaras organized by cousins Vijay Yadav and Pramod Yadav....



POLITICS

08 November 2016 18:50

IS PUNJAB HEADING FOR A DIRECT TWO HORSE RACE?

Dr. Praveen Patil

We are suffering and the government is simply deaf to our woes” averred Surjeet Singh, a midsize farmer near the Bhagtawala grain market in Amritsar. He along with some 50 other farmers was sitting on an impromptu protest against the state government. A protest which had more than a 100 AAP activists and scores of journalists along with a few ward level Congress leaders.


POLITICS

02 November 2016 22:52

THE ACQUISITION OF PROJECT NATIONALISM BY THE USHV ENTERPRISE

Dr. Praveen Patil

“It is not so manly to resign oneself to one’s degraded position or to sit weeping in the house like women, but it is our duty to strive strenuously to remove the cause of our misfortune” was a screaming clarion call of Tilak in his Newspaper, Kesari, in 1905. That was an India deep in slumber, resigned to her Karma of slavery to foreign powers. An India that simply had no will or means to fight back....



POLITICS

20 July 2016 22:44

A SAFFRON COUNTRY WITHIN A COUNTRY PART 2: LOTUS BLOOMS AFTER 14 YEARS OF VANVAS

Dr. Praveen Patil

[This is a 2 part series on Uttar Pradesh elections 2017 based on Team 5Forty3 Survey conducted between June 28th and July 14th.] In late May, BSP supremo, Mayawati had neatly divided the responsibilities of different castes among her lieutenants. Swami Prasad Maurya and R.S. Kushwaha where given the responsibility of bringing in Kushwaha, Maurya, Shakhya and Saini votes....



POLITICS

16 July 2016 22:33

A SAFFRON COUNTRY WITHIN A COUNTRY: PART 1 – THE RISE OF A YOGI

Dr. Praveen Patil

[This is part 1 of the two part Uttar Pradesh election analysis based on Team 5Forty3’s survey conducted between June 28th and July 14th] “Today I am an independent woman who can take care of her children” says Prema Devi, a young Dalit Jatav ‘social worker’ near Kanpur who then goes on to add, “Mayawati ji gave us self-respect no doubt, but that is not enough to sustain our day-to-day lives; ...



POLITICS

04 April 2016 13:50

THE BENGAL PUZZLE

Dr. Praveen Patil

“BJP is like a bride who has been getting ready with her bridal make-up for the last 2 years and we are still waiting to catch a glimpse of the bride’s face… I guess we won’t see her in 2016” avers Sudipto a 35-year-old techie from Kolkata who has been a life-long communist but had voted for Modi’s party in 2014. His words sum up the situation of BJP in Bengal as aptly as one could ever do. In fact, this is not just a one off anecdotal quote but a unique demographic-electoral reality


POLITICS

01 December 2015 21:50

THE LAST 72-HOUR SYNDROME

Dr. Praveen Patil

On the 10th of November, the accepted logic among the BJP circles of Gujarat was that the ruling party is facing some resistance but would still scrape through in almost all the city corporations barring probably Rajkot. Less than a fortnight later, on the actual polling day on 22nd November, the picture had completely changed as the saffron party was even struggling in its citadel of Ahmedabad.


POLITICS

05 October 2015 00:00

How Narasimha Rao Rescued India From Being A Nation Of Maid-Servants

Dr. Praveen Patil

This is the snapshot of P.V. Narasimha Rao’s interview given to Prabhu Chawla of the Indian Express on 8th July 1991. The then Prime Minister of India, in this interview, comes across as an extremely confident leader who was aware of his historic duty to liberalize Indian economy, especially when he emphatically states, “We mean business now”!


POLITICS

27 April 2015 22:30

ISLAM, POP CULTURE AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEMON

Dr. Praveen Patil

That was a magical evening. That was an evening of joyous songs. That was an evening of hopeless romantics discovering the love of their lives. As hundreds of thousands of people gathered at the Champs-Élysées amidst neon lights and honking horns, there was unprecedented merriment everywhere. It was the greatest party that Paris had hosted since liberation day in 1944.


POLITICS

18 November 2012 14:34

The homecoming of an icon

Dr. Praveen Patil

After assuming the office of the CM on 24 June 1991, Kalyan Singh did not sit back idly twiddling his thumbs, he was of a different mould altogether.


POLITICS

21 July 2012 22:30

HOW SONIA GANDHI ROBBED SURJEET'S LANDS AND WHY GOURAMMA IS ANGRY WITH SHANTAPPA: THE MONKEY BUSINESS OF MNREGA

Dr. Praveen Patil

Near the Radha Soamy satsang, Parore, Kangra district, Himachal Pradesh: Surjeet Sharma, a Gaddi pandit belonging to the scheduled tribes of Himachal Pradesh, clearly remembers the year 2005, when he married a gaddan from Chamba. Year 2005 was momentous for the Sharma’s, not only because of the marriage of their only son but also because that year they had collectively made a decent profit in their fields and had brought their first automobile.


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AUTHORS

Dr.Praveen Patil

Is the founder and CEO of 5Forty3 Datalabs. He is India’s foremost psephologist and demographic scientist.


Sandeep Balakrishna

Is a passionate researcher and storyteller with a longtime focus on India’s Socio, Political and Economic journey.


MORE AUTHORS