THE 11 AM ANALYSIS WITH DR. PRAVEEN PATIL: BJP SURGING AHEAD IN RACE
Posted on 2014-04-10 13:41:31
In a staggered election schedule of 2014, the 10th of April is probably important for its sheer beginning as most battles are half-won by making a good beginning. The spread of the first major day of polling is also important because of its heavy concentration in the Northern India, especially the Jat belt of Haryana via Delhi and into Western Uttar Pradesh. The Jat vote could be a crucial differentiating factor of 2014 which is the reason why the Congress party has taken a last minute decision of Jat reservation. Will Modi create a historic new social engineering by amalgamating Jats into his already formidable “united spectrum of Hindu votes”? Or will the Ajit Singh-Hooda-UPA combines’ Jat reservation salvo alter the dynamics drastically? Are the Dalit voters inclined towards making a historic shift or will Maya still prevail? How will the Muslim tactical voting impact 2014? Answers to all these questions will determine the fate of India.
Western Uttar Pradesh
Western UP started with a big surprise in the morning as BSP seems to be getting a decent traction among voters. Surprisingly, Muslims are also looking at BSP as an option. But our own assessment of the Muslim vote splitting in west-UP seems to be more-or-less accurate, for one-sided consolidation is not seen. It is BJP v/s the rest in West-UP, where the saffron party is ahead of the entire pack of political parties!
The huge meltdown of AAP is the story of Delhi. We are almost tracking the same areas that we did during the December assembly elections and we can literally see AAP crumbling everywhere. It looks like a landslide for the BJP in national capital and Congress seems to be a distant second as of now.
The fight seems to be close at this point between BJP-HVC and Congress. We will have to wait out till evening to get the exact picture here. We are not yet putting anything on Haryana as of now, so you’ll have to wait till the post-noon report.