PROJECTIONS TILL 12TH APRIL POLLS
Posted on 2014-04-16 13:58:07
Northern and Vidharbha parts of this second largest state went to polls on the 10th of April and our survey had a sample size of 624 spread out in 11 assembly segments of 4 parliamentary constituencies. Our representative sampling was well spread out across the demographic profile of Vidharbha and included the following;
We then extrapolated the sample data to our own social profile of Vidharbha using the latest Census numbers to add adequate weightage to different ethnic groups/castes in order to arrive at the right representative model. Based on this model we converted the vote-shares of different parties accordingly to arrive at the final numbers.
In 2009, in these 10 seats that went to polls on the 10th of April, BJP-SS had an advantage of only 0.5% in terms of vote-share which is why both NDA and UPA shared 5 parliamentary seats each. This time our mathematical model projects a clear 4% lead to BJP-SS in these seats which usually means exponential gains in terms of number of seats. For the vote-to seat conversion, we have taken multiple parameters into consideration like inter-parliamentary constituency vote-share difference, historic vote-share data of individual parliamentary seat, intra assembly segment wise vote-share differential and demographic divide of percentage of votes in each individual seat. Based on these parameters we have projected a clear victory for BJP-SS in 8 parliamentary seats and 2 have gone to Congress-NCP.
This is a state that was looking interestingly poised on the voting day on 10th when BJP and Congress looked like being on an equal footing, based on our overall vote-share data. Once we dived deeper into those numbers, we began to realize the real picture as seat after seat seems to have voted to defeat Congress but the anti-Congress vote seems to have split among the opposition parties, so what looked like even-stevens turned out to be a skewed picture with an anti-Congress vote getting divided. This is why the demographic profiling of any data collection exercise is very important. Our sample size in Haryana was 1035 spread across 4 parliamentary seats and gave adequate social representation to all sections of the Haryana society.
In our over emphasis on the Congress decline story, we tend to forget another important story, that of BSP’s decline. 2014 will probably be remembered as an election that saw almost the complete decimation of this north Indian Dalit party which had once emerged as a potential national player. For instance, here in Haryana, BSP had 16% vote-share in the 2009 parliamentary election, which has now literally come down to a third at about 6%. This is a decline that we have been seeing for the last couple of years when Mayawati’s party had lost almost all its base in a string of state elections – especially late last year when BSP lost its moorings in MP, Rajasthan and Delhi where it had emerged as the third pole over the last 2 decades. Unless Mayawti takes timely action, BSP will suffer almost terminal decline in the next few years.
Another phenomenon of this Haryana election is AAP’s performance of winning double-digit vote-share, although not winning any seats. For a party that has just about started its political innings, getting double digit vote-share in at least 3 states is an achievement that it can be proud of, but for the impossibly high ambitions the party and its supporters seem to have about 2014. If the party remains focussed as a long term player, it can possibly emerge as a serious contender in parts of India within a decade.
BJP is suffering in Haryana, despite a pro-Modi wave against the Congress because it didn’t get its alliance mathematics right. Had it been able to form a broader coalition with INLD, the NDA could have made a clean sweep of this important state. Many voters, especially the Jat voters were in the belief that a vote for INLD was also a vote for Modi, which seems to have cost at least 2 seats for the BJP.
Our sample size for Delhi was 1631 spread across 11 assembly segments of 4 parliamentary seats. We also then got survey data from a third party source for the remaining 2 parliamentary seats. Using this entire data we have made the vote-share and seat-share projections with an overall sample size of 2148.
The sample size for this eastern state was 690 spread across 6 parliamentary constituencies. What is surprising is that BJP has emerged as a very close second to the BJD while Congress has been relegated to a distant third in this eastern state where it was hitherto believed that BJP had lost its entire base after its alliance with Biju Janata Dal broke-off in 2009. Two important caveats before we post the results; 1] This is only limited to parliamentary election as the survey was not done for the parallel assembly polls and 2] 5Forty3 was not directly involved in this Odisha survey due to lack of infrastructure in Eastern India so it was outsourced to another independent organization.
Overall Seat Projections till 12th April polling
We also have numbers from three smaller north Indian states of Assam, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand based on which we have done our final seat-share projections till the 12th of April when elections have held in 110 parliamentary seats of 20 states and union territories.
[Kerala is based on CSDS and other agencies pre-poll numbers. Non-Assam North-East is based on ground reports and past electoral data]