The 2014 Election

Analysis of the 4th list of BJP – Part 1: The UP 53

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BJP came up with its 4th list of candidates for the LS polls over the weekend and it looks like finally the jigsaw is falling in its place. As would be the case with any political party, especially the frontrunner, there is some amount of heart burn among those who have been denied a ticket to fight elections, but overall BJP seems to have avoided any major mishaps. For an antagonistic media and the intellectual class who were pinning their last hopes on a big fight erupting in the saffron camp vis-à-vis Sushma Swaraj-Murli Manohar Joshi v/s the new BJP, were left disappointed. Even minor acrimony in the form of Kalraj Mishra-Lalji Tandon types didn’t arise, so the newspapers started reporting names like former MLA, Ram Iqbal Singh and Nawal Kishore Yadav etc. who are not recognizable even within their own constituencies – such is the precipice of the intellectual falling down.

There is one clear pattern that is emerging from the BJP ticket distribution this time, that there is no pattern at all! For instance, in Bihar’s first list of 20 odd names, there were as many as 9 new entrants, but hardly 4 names out of 53 announced in UP can be termed as outsiders. What does this tell us? BJP is looking purely at electoral math independent to each state rather than working on any single political philosophy. Thus if bringing outside talent suits the political environment prevailing in Bihar, then a pro-BJP wave in UP only helps core ideological elements rather than turncoats. This “winnability being the sole criteria” will hold the party in good stead in the summer of 2014 notwithstanding whatever minor acrimonies are as of today.

There is one surprisingly negative aspect to BJP’s ticket distribution though – it seems the party somehow doesn’t have the same clarity in the smaller north-western states (the Punjab-Jammu belt) as in the heartland (UP-Bihar region). As it is the Jammu shenanigans has already become famous, now BJP seems to have made a mess in Punjab and parts of Haryana too. Will these small bits and pieces hurt BJP, or will the larger picture camouflage these minor indiscretions remains to be seen.

Uttar Pradesh

The 53 names announced from UP are a unique balancing act that has Amit-Shah and Rajnath Singh written all over it (there are some reports suggesting that the western part of the state had that latter’s imprint while the eastern parts were left to the former). Could this list have been better? The answer to that question would always be yes, but then the nature of elections is such that trade-offs are simply unavoidable. The bottom line is that this probably is the best possible list of 53 names that the party could have come up with under the circumstances. Now let us analyse UP as four sub-regions, for Uttar Pradesh is literally a country within a country.

Purvanchal

This is the Bhojpuri heartland of eastern Uttar Pradesh which shares its socio-cultural moorings with western Bihar (the Buxar-Champaran belt) which was historically ruled by Kashi Naresh (the emperor of Benares) with the oldest city in the world, Varnasi as its capital. Purvanchal is not only made up of 23 LS seats of Uttar Pradesh but also influences a dozen LS seats of western Bihar. Thus with a chunk of 35 MPs, the political importance of this region can never be overestimated. Amit Shah, the trusted lieutenant of Modi and in-charge of UP affairs, had realized long ago that winning Purvanchal would be the key to mission 2014 so he was always clear about BJP’s prime ministerial nominee contesting from this region. Although there is no real data to prove that a popular leader contesting in a particular region makes any difference to the party’s eventual seat tally, what cannot be denied at all is that Modi’s contest from here has immensely enthused ordinary workers.

Varanasi: Narendra Bhai Damodardas Modi, BJP’s prime-ministerial candidate, will be contesting from the oldest city of the world. BJP has three sitting MLAs in Varanasi North, South and Cantonment assembly segments, which have total voters of about 12 lakh plus. Assuming 60% voting at least, roughly 7 lakh Varanasi city voters (of all the three assembly segments) should go out to vote on the 12th of May as Varanasi will go to polls on the last day of polling. Our current conservative estimates based on ground reports (not on actual survey) suggest that BJP and Modi should take an almost unassailable lead by getting around 4 lakh votes (out of 7 lakh possible turnout in the city). There are roughly 7 lakh voters in the two other Kurmi dominated assembly segments of Rohaniya and Sevapuri. The Kurmis, like any other OBCs in the heartland have tremendous goodwill for NaMo, so BJP should once again get anywhere about 2-3 lakh votes in these two assembly segments put together, assuming a turnout range of 55-60%. In the 2009 LS polls, BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi had won this seat by a margin of 17k after securing 2 lakh+ votes. This time we are projecting that Modi could get anywhere between 5 to 6 lakh votes and win this seat easily with a margin of 3-5 lakhs, no matter who contests against him. Rating: Super Positive

Salempur: Ravindra Kushwaha has been given the party ticket from this Kushwaha dominated seat in a strategically brilliant move, for he happens to be the son of Hari Kewal Sharma, a four time Samajwadi Party MP from Salempur. Former PM, Chandrashekhar’s son Pankaj Shekhar was eyeing this seat, but BJP seems to have kept only winnability as the criteria in deciding the candidature. There has been some resentment among BJP leaders like Ram Iqbal Singh about ticket being given to a new inductee, but most of these leaders are well past their sell-by dates. Rating: Positive

Bhadohi: Virendra Singh Mast, a product of the Ayodhya movement and twice MP during the 90s from neighbouring Mirzapur, has once again been resurrected by the party despite him losing 1999 and 2004 LS polls and even failing to save deposit in a by-election from Ballia necessitated by the death of former PM Chandrashekhar. Many see his candidature as a wasted opportunity, but the fact is that Virendra Singh still has clout and has a decent chance of emerging victorious in a close three cornered fight between BJP, SP and BSP, especially because he has been working on the ground for the last couple of years. With the prevailing Modi wave in this region, BJP should manage to take this seat, where it had finished a distant fifth in 2009 behind parties like Apna Dal, but the 4 lakh plus Brahmin votes will be crucial for the party in the end analysis. Rating: Average

Chandauli: Here the contest is mainly between SP and BSP, BJP has nominated ex-MLA, Mahendranath Pandey who has the dubious distinction of getting only 57k votes and finishing fifth in Badohi in 2009. Only a massive Modi wave can potentially cause a miraculous victory for BJP here. Rating: Negative

Jaunpur: Former minister Umanath Singh’s son K.P. Singh has been given the party ticket from this important upper caste bastion in a move that has surprised many observers. Here BSP’s Dhananjay Singh (sitting MP), who is widely seen as a sort of Rajput Robinhood was ahead in the race until now. Can K.P. Singh recapture this seat? There are two X factors that will decide BJP’s fate here – 1) Swami Chinmayanand, a former minister of state for Home in the Vajpayee government and four time MP (including Jaunpur in 1999) can create mischief for BJP although his clout has decreased considerably over the last decade and 2) support of local BJP leaders like Seema Dwivedi, the Mungra-Badshahpur MLA and 2009 MP contestant who is upset at being denied ticket this time. Congress has nominated popular Bhojpuri Superstar, Ravi Kishen from this seat who may also dent the ‘secular’ votes adding drama to the contest. Rating: Average

Machhlishahr: Former Apna Dal leader Ram Charitra Nishad has been nominated from here. This constituency will see a three cornered fight between SP, BSP and BJP, in which sitting MP Toofani Saroj of SP seems to have an edge. BJP can still win this seat if it can get the crucial support of Khateek voters who seem to be shifting allegiances in the 2014 polls. Rating: Below Average

Azamgarh: Sitting MP Ramakant Yadav who has won this seat thrice since 1999 on three different party tickets has been re-nominated by the BJP. Ground reports suggest that there is considerable local level anti-incumbency against Mr Yadav, especially among the upper caste Rajput community. He is still considered as “Yadavon ka sher” in Azamgarh though. There is also deep polarization among Muslims in this constituency who are backing SP to the hilt here. If Mulayam Singh contests from this seat then it could be almost a single horse race, otherwise BJP can make a fight of it, but this is a difficult seat for the party to retain. Rating: Below Average

Roberstganj (SC): This is a seat where BJP still has definite presence as a party, but Chhotelal Kharwar has been given the party ticket much against the wishes of party cadre. There is a great deal of anti-incumbency against the non-performing Pakauri Lal Kol, the sitting MP of Samajwadi Party, but since BJP’s ticket here has left a lot to desire, this is now a three cornered fight that needs massive groundwork by the cadre to win. Rating: Average

Ghosi: Former minister Harinarain Rajbhar who had joined SP a few years ago only to return back to the saffron fold has been given ticket here. He used to represent Siar assembly seat in Ballia district during the 90s but had lost out after delimitation and was waiting for long to resurrect his defunct political career. It seems to be a calculated risk taken by Amit Shah to give ticket to Rajbhar instead of other contenders like Vijay Pratap Singh. Thakur votes will be crucial here and Modi wave may come to BJP’s aid. Rating: Average

Ballia: Bharat Singh is again one of those who is part of the “deadwood” of the BJP who had lost even the assembly election in 2012 by a big margin. This is a seat where Neeraj Shekhar (former PM Chandrashekhar’s son) still holds sway and it is unlikely that he would be defeated this time too. Rating: Negative

Gorakhpur: Yogi Adityanath had improved his victory margin from 1.5 lakhs in 2004 to 2 lakh+ in 2009, the guess is that he may double that margin this time with much higher turnouts expected. Rating: Super Positive

Bansgaon: This is again one of the strength areas of BJP where Yogi Adityanath wields influence and Kamlesh Paswan, the sitting BJP MP, has made his own in the last few years. As of today Paswan is ahead in all the 5 assembly segments with massive leads in Chauri-Chaura and Rudrapur areas. Rating: Positive

Lalganj: Neelam Sonkar has once again been given the BJP ticket to take on BSP’s Baliram. Sonkar who had lost the previous encounter by less than 40k votes is much stronger this time, and so is the BJP. As of today BJP is ahead in Nizamabad, Phoolpur-Pawai and Lalganj assembly segments, but the only problem area for the party and Sonkar is Atrauliya assembly segment as of now. Rating: Positive

Deoria: Kalraj Mishra has got the ticket from here much to the heartburn of former state unit president, Surya Pratap Shahi, whose supporters have even burnt effigies of Rajnatah Singh. This time BJP has an edge in this seat but a lot depends on how much support Kalraj Mishra will get from the local leaders of the BJP, especially the likes of two-time MP Prakashmani Tripathi and Surya Pratap Shahi. If BJP leaders and workers bury their differences (especially along Thakur-Brahmin fault-lines) then this is a sure-shot seat for the party, or else BJP will have to struggle to cross the finish line. BJP is ahead of its rivals in Deoria town, Pathardeva and Rampur Karkhana areas, but the problem areas are Fazlinagar and Tamkuhi Raj assembly segments. Rating: Positive

Maharajganj: This is the rare eastern-UP seat that Congress had won in 2009, but BJP has nominated Pankaj Chaudhary once again – he is a 4 time MP from here. This time again old warhorse Pankaj Chaudhary has an edge, especially as the sitting Congress MP has been a big under-performer. Recent recruits R.K. Misra and Prem Sagar Patel (formerly BSP) who were expecting an MP ticket from here could create some problems for Pankaj Chaudhary, but it is still quite difficult to see BJP losing this seat. Rating: Positive

Basti: This is one of the baffling decisions of the party, for Harish Dwivedi, who had not only lost the 2012 assembly election from Basti town by a margin of over 20k, but had also finished 3rd has been given BJP ticket. This is a seat which is usually given to Thakurs, so it is even more baffling that BJP has made such a poor choice. It is said among some circles that BJP president Rajnath Singh has scuttled the chances of many Thakur ticket seekers which has created all this mess. There was talk of Fateh Bahadur Singh getting the ticket from here which would have been a far better choice for the party. Rating: Negative

Western UP

This politically significant Jatland shares its demographics with Haryana, parts of eastern Rajasthan and outer Delhi. 5 of 10 BJP MPs from Uttar Pradesh came from out of these 27 Lok Sabha seats in the 2009 election. BJP has announced 18 names in this region and is yet to decide on the remaining 9. With roughly 22-25% of the population, Jats are the most important political group of this region. Muzaffarnagar riots and the consequent polarization had made this one of the most favourable zones for the BJP, but there is some amount of heartburn among Jats because of ticket distribution. But the fact is that most Jat voters have already made up their mind to support BJP and the party has done a decent job of ticket distribution to keep all the other ethnic subgroups happy.

Muzaffarnagar: Of all the contenders in the fray for this very significant seat, BJP has chosen possibly the best man to represent the party instead of rabble rousers like Sangeet Som, which has sent a clear message that Modi’s agenda is one of development. Dr Sanjiv Baliyan, agricultural scientist is an emerging Jat icon and represents the suave face of Jat politics who talk of ideas to solve problems rather than simply create violent agitations. Dr Baliyan has the potential to be a new age Chaudhary Charan Singh in the next few years and create a dynamic shift in the socio-political landscape of Jats, which surely augurs well for the BJP. This is a seat that BJP will win with a thumping lead. Rating: Super Positive

Kairana: Again the choice was simply clear, Hukum Singh, the sitting MLA and a towering Gujjar leader who was seen as playing a major role in not only keeping the Hindus united but also calming the nerves by talking peace during the Muzaffarnagar riots. This should again give BJP an easy victory here. Rating: Positive

Saharanpur: Sitting MLA of Saharanpur, Raghav Lakhan Pal has been given the ticket from here which is a decent choice, notwithstanding the fact that sitting MP Jagadish Rana of the BSP was interested in BJP ticket. In the polarized atmosphere prevailing in this region, BJP should take this seat. Rating: Positive

Bijnor: Advocate Rajendra Singh has been nominated as BJP candidate here, but Kunwar Bharatendra Singh, the sitting MLA of Bijnor would have been a far better choice. Now it is almost a three cornered fight between BSP, BJP and RLD (especially after RLD nominated actress Jayaprada from here) with Chandpur, Hatinapur and Meerapur assembly segments holding the key. As of today, BSP seems to have an edge in this three-cornered battle. Rating: Below Average

Moradabad: Kunwar Sarvesh Singh of the Thakurdwara-Bilari royal family, a Bahubali of western UP and 5 time MLA of Thakurdwara has been re-nominated from this seat where he had lost to Mohammad Azharuddin by about 50k votes in 2009. This time BJP has a big lead in Thakurdwara, Barhapur and Moradabad town assembly segments which should help Mr Singh to easily sail through from this constituency. As Congress, which had won the previous election, has nominated Rampur royalty Noor Bano, there is a definite possibility of a split in minority votes between Congress and BSP giving BJP a clear edge. Rating: Positive

Rampur: With two time MP, Jayaprada shifting party and LS seat, there is a wave for change in this parliamentary constituency where BJP has nominated Naipal Singh, MLC. This is Azam Khan territory, where former UP CM Kalyan Singh still holds sway due to significant presence of Lodh votes. In a polarized atmosphere where Lodh votes are back to the saffron camp in a big way, BJP may win this seat from under Azam Khan’s nose. There was a section within BJP which was demanding ticket for Muqtar Abbas Naqvi, which would have been simply disastrous for the party, but Amit Shah and team seem to have once again kept “winnability” criteria on top. Rating: Average

Meerut: Rajendra Agarwal, sitting MP, has been re-nominated from here. With Congress nominee, actress Nagma being virtually out of contest even with RLD support, the main fight here would be between BJP and BSP. BSP will likely get the support of Muslims and a large section of Dalits, whereas BJP should get full support of Jats, OBCs and more importantly the upper-caste votes (which went to BSP in large numbers even in 2009). BJP is enjoying a clear lead in the three segments of Meerut (North, South and Cantt.) along with Hapur assembly segment, so it is advantage Mr Agarwal. Rating: Positive

Baghpat: Although a better candidate like say, Shahendra Singh Ramala, could have possibly made the BJP’s cause easier, but in the end analysis, former Mumbai top-cop, Satyapal Singh could be a giant killer here. History has shown us that usually it is the members of educated civil society who stand a better chance against established names in difficult electoral contests. Although Ajit Singh was on a back-foot after Muzaffarnagar, he seems to have regained some of the lost ground due to Jat reservation and Rakesh Tikait’s joining of RLD. This is now an almost equal contest with probably even a slight edge to Ajit Singh. Modi Nagar, Baghpat town and Siwal Khas assembly segments probably hold the key this time around. Rating: Average

Gautam Buddh Nagar and Bulandshahr (SC): BJP has nominated Dr Mahesh Sahrama and Dr Bhola Singh respectively from these constituencies and both are on a very strong wicket. BJP had lost Gautam Buddh Nagar narrowly last time by 15k votes and has re-nominated its sitting MLA from Noida. This time the party has significant leads in Noida, Khurja and Sikandrabad assembly segments, so it should be a much easier task to win. Similarly in Bulandshahr where Debai assembly segment had cost the party dearly last time, there is a big lead for BJP this time around. Rating: Positive

Aligarh and Firozabad: Both are difficult seats for BJP as Satish Gautam may find the going tough for himself and the party in Aligarh where Congress and BSP seem to be in a direct fight. Similarly, in Firozabad, three time MP, S.P Singh Baghel has been nominated by BJP, but he is facing a very tough battle against Akshay Yadav, Mulayam’s nephew and son of Ram Gopal Yadav. Rating: Below Average

Agra: Sitting MP of BJP, Dr Ramashankar Katheriya, has definite advantage from Agra so he has been re-nominated. Etmadpur and Jalesar assembly segments hold the key, for BJP seems to be reasonably ahead in two out of three Agra town assembly segments (North and South). In Jalesar, S.P. Singh Baghel still holds significant clout which may help BJP much in the upcoming polls. Rating: Positive

Mainpuri: It really doesn’t matter whom the BJP nominates, for this is Mulayam Singh Yadav stronghold and SP will likely win it again with a big margin. Rating: Negative

Etah: If Mainpuri belongs to Mulayam Singh, Etah is Kalyan Singh territory, so Rajvir Singh, his son is virtually undefeatable from here. Rating: Positive

Aonla, Bareilly and Philibit: Dharmendra Kashyap, Santosh Gangwar and Maneka Gandhi have been nominated from these seats. All three are stalwarts in their own right and are expected to win these seats easily for the BJP. Rating: Positive

Awadh

The central Uttar Pradesh region which had stopped supporting BJP for some time now, evidenced by the fact that BJP’s lone MP from entire Awadh region came from Lucknow in 2009, is once again looking towards the saffron camp with hope. Can BJP recreate its old magic is the million dollar question.

Lucknow: BJP president Rajnath Singh will be contesting from this party stronghold, which was once represented by former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee. BJP hasn’t lost this seat in close to 25 years, since 1991, so this is considered as a “safe seat” for the party. The only new X factor this time is that the last 5 BJP victories from here have come from Brahmin candidates, whereas this time a Thakur is contesting from here on the party ticket. In fact, this seat has been an unofficial Brahmin reserved constituency where Brahmins have always won it since 1971, except for a very low turnout 1989 election. Despite this history, Rajnath Singh is expected to win this seat by a big margin. Rating: Super Positive

Kanpur: Dr Murli Manohar Joshi, veteran BJP leader and possibly the tallest standing Brahmin face after Vajpayee has been allocated this urban seat which Congress had won in the previous three elections through Sriprakash Jaiswal. This seat should once again see a straight fight between BJP and Congress with others vying for a distant third position (including AAP). Congress as a party and Mr Jaiswal himself personally are both facing huge anti-incumbency so it is advantage Joshi here. Rating: Positive

Sultanpur: In a very good move, BJP has shifted Varun Gandhi to this Nehru-Gandhi loyalist seat. Here he is not only expected to win, but win big, especially now that Sanjay Singh has moved to the Rajya Sabha. Though Sanjay Singh’s wife Amita Singh is contesting on the Congress ticket from here, she might not be able to challenge Varun Gandhi. Of the 18% Brahmins, 27% OBCs, 6% Thakurs and even 24% Dalits, Varun will likely get a lion’s share of the votes, while the 21% Muslim votes may get divided between Congress and Shakeel Ahmed of SP. Varun Gandhi’s roadshows and Nukkad public meetings are attracting huge crowds, indicating which way the wind is blowing. Rating: Super Positive

Kheri: Ajay Mishra has been repeated by the BJP in a calculated risk by the party managers. He is the sitting MLA of Nighasan where he is likely to get a big lead of 30k+ (he had got a 20k vote lead even in 2009 LS polls). There is a huge vote polarization along religious lines here and since Congress and BSP have both fielded Muslims and SP has re-nominated Ravi Prakash Verma, BJP stands a decent chance of causing an upset victory. If Ajay Mishra manages to get leads in at least 2 out of three other assembly segments of Palia, Gola Gokrannath and Lakimpur, then BJP will be in the game. Rating: Average

Sitapur: Another of the Kurmi dominated seats where BJP has nominated Rajesh Verma, a new entrant to the party who was a two time MP from here on a BSP ticket and still holds considerable sway. This is a difficult seat for BJP to win, but in a multi-cornered fight with a Modi wave coupled with the personal hold of Mr Verma can help the party. Rating: Below Average

Hardoi: Usha Verma of the Samajwadi Party, who is also the sitting MP, has strong pockets of influence in this parliamentary seat and also there are hardly any negatives against her. BJP has bungled up by nominating Anshul Verma here, so SP has a clear advantage. Rating: Negative

Misrikh: BJP has nominated a very strong Smt Anju Bala for this reserved constituency, where a large number of Dalit voters, especially Chamars are expected to support her rather than the BSP. There are mainly 5 lakh Pasi voters, 4 lakh Chamar voters, 4 lakh Brahmin, 1.5 lakh Kurmi and 1 lakh Lodh voters here; BJP is expected to get a big chunk of Chamar, Brahmin and OBC vote making it easier for Anju Bala to win this seat. Rating: Positive

Unnao: It is difficult to understand the logic of nominating an outsider like Sakshi Maharaj in this Brahmin dominated seat (about 4 lakh Brahmin votes) where Congress’s Anu Tandon had won a thumping victory in 2009 with a margin of over 3 lakhs. Sakshi Maharaj is well past his prime and will need a herculean effort to defeat the very clinical Anu Tandon. Rating: Below Average

Mohanlalganj: This reserved constituency is a stronghold of the SP, which has re-nominated its sitting MP, Sushila Saroj and BJP has simply shown no “thinking out of the box” by nominating ex-MLA Kaushal Kishore who stands little chance of upsetting the Samajwadi applecart. Rating: Negative

Farrukhabad: This high profile seat of Salman Khurshid is likely to see a major change in this election, but BJP has nominated Kalyan Singh’s right-hand man, Mukesh Rajput who had unsuccessfully contested from here in 2004 LS polls but had subsequently joined Kalyan Singh’s RKP only to lose the 2012 assembly elections from Bhojpur (where he finished second, ahead of the BJP). The onus is now on Kalyan Singh to win this seat for BJP and defeat the current External Affairs Minister in the UPA government. This could well see a close 4-cornered fight like last time when hardly 10-15k votes separated each of the top 4 contestant. Kaimganj, Bhojpur and Farrukhabad assembly segments hold the key to victory here. Rating: Average

Etawah: In this SP bastion, about 1 lakh plus Chamar voters, 1 lakh plus Brahmin voters, 80k Rajput and 60k Lodh voters are all ganging up against the Samajwadis and in favour of the BJP which has wisely nominated Ashok Dohre who is resourceful enough to win this reserved seat. Rating: Average

Kannauj: Another SP stronghold has been attacked by the BJP, where once again a good nominee by the party in the form of Subrat Pathak is attracting all the upper caste votes of Brahmins, Thakurs and Baniyas (numbering up to 3 lakhs). If BJP manages to also get the non-Yadav OBC votes of roughly another 2 lakh plus, then a surprise defeat of SP (represented by Akhilesh and Dimple Yadav over the last 5 years) cannot be ruled out! No wonder Mulayam is suffering sleepless nights and keeps targeting Modi and BJP in every speech of his. Rating: Average

Fatehpur: Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, the MLA from Hamirpur and a fiery speaker has been nominated from here. She has managed to completely polarize upper-caste (mainly Thakur) and Nishad votes in her favour. Currently BJP has taken big leads in Fatehpur and Khaga assembly segments and is also ahead in other areas. Right now BJP has a definite edge on this seat. Rating: Positive

Barabanki and Kaushambi: Both are difficult seats for BJP where Dalit votes, especially those of Pasis will make a big difference. In Barabanki, there are 6 lakh Dalit votes (about 60% of them Pasis) and 2 lakh Kurmi voters who will eventually decide who wins this seat. In Kaushambi too, BJP is facing an uphill task of attracting a combination of Dalit-Brahmin-OBC votes. Priyanka Rawat and Vinod Sonkar have been nominated from Barabanki and Kaushambi respectively. Rating: Below Average

Faizabad: 5 time MLA from Ayodhya and one of the original icons of Ram Janam Bhoomi movement has been nominated by the BJP to represent Faizabad in the 16th Lok Sabha, notwithstanding the heartburn it has caused to former MP Vinay Katiyar. Here again there is a BJP wave and the party is way ahead of the rest thanks to a very good ticket decision. Brahmins + Thakurs + Kurmis + Other Upper Castes account for close to 6 lakh voters here and all of them seem to be moving towards BJP, which is also getting a section of Dalit (Chamar) votes here. BJP is ahead in Ayodhya, Rudauli and Milkipur assembly segments as of today. Rating: Positive

Bahraich: Savitri Bai Phule, the sitting MLA of Balha is the BJP nominee here, which is another very good ticket by the party. As of today BJP is ahead in Balha, Bahraich and Mahsi assembly segments and is expected to have a very good showing in this parliamentary constituency. Rating: Average

Shrawasti: This is one of those dud decisions by the party that can possibly be overlooked in the overall scheme of things as Daddan Mishra is not only a deadwood but also very few Brahmin voters are present here (about 60-75k). One wonders how leaders like Daddan Mishra continue to survive despite finishing third in the 2012 assembly election (from Bhinga assembly segment of Shrawasti). Rating: Below Average

Bundelkhand

The lone seat that has been announced as of now is Jhansi, from where the veteran Sadhvi Uma Bharati will be contesting on the BJP ticket. She still has a larger than life presence here in Jhansi and should easily win this seat with a big margin. Rating: Super Positive

Note on Ratings Game:

Super Positive: Victory by big margin

Positive: BJP being ahead of the rest

Average: Tough contest but winnable for the BJP (especially in a wave election)

Below Average: BJP behind as of now, but the seat is not “unwinnable”, provided party puts in hard work and lady luck shines on its candidate

Negative: No chance of winning for BJP

(Part 2, consisting of non-UP states like Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab will be uploaded tomorrow)

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12 comments

  1. Siddharth

    Hi, I would just request you to change the colour of Positive from yellow to another colour as yellow is too light and is difficult to read.

  2. Anand Goel

    sir new addition of rating is very useful for readers. pls provide one complied state wise table with ration for tickets announed till date. this will be great gift from you for all readers of your blog.

    thanks

  3. pushpendra

    the first list of UP is pretty good considering the fact that in all elections in the past in UP, the mess created by so called senior leaders during candidate selection was the chief cause for debacle of BJP. this time also i was apprehensive about this but thankfully nd surprisingly for the very first time this time the sole criteria seems to be the winnibality factor nd party has chosen the candidates very intelligently. it is good that rajnath singh has his sway nd non leaders like vinay katiyar,kalraj mishra nd kalyan singh nd corrupt RSS loby has not given much say. in past also whenever rajnath singh had complete control over candidate selection like in municipal elections bjp performed better. however i have reservations about few like sakshi maharaj,daddan mishra nd uma bharti. i dont know why a waste like sakshi maharaj is entertained when the party has many good options nd when jhansi can be won by ravi sharma why to waste Uma Bharti jhansi, she can contest from kannauj from where she can easily defeat dimple yadav. also i disagree with u that mulayam cant be defeated from mainpuri. although now it is too late, mulayam could be defeated if bjp prepares against him early or select a stong thakur candidate who could polarise non yadav votes. in mainpuri-etah region, SP has given all seats to yadavs out of which four r from mulayams own family, however in none of the seats SP can win by getting only yadav votes . in mainpuri also yadav votes r no more than 3.2 lacs, abt 2 lacs r thakurs, abt 1.3 lacs brahmins, 1.5 lacs lodh, 1.5 to 2 lacs shakya, abt 70 thousand baniya voters. muslims nd dalits r very less comparatively. a bjp candidate who can polarise non yadavs considering the fact that non yadavs in this region r continuosly exposed to extreme yadav vaad nd yadav gundai can easily defeat mulayam, but in UP political parties seldom try to make election of big leaders of other parties difficult.

  4. pushpendra

    it was sadhvi prachi who hails form baghpat, became famous in mujaffarnagar episode. sadhvi niranjan jyoti from hamirpur has no relation to mujaffarnagar.

  5. Mahendra Verma

    Awesome analysis sir! Never seen any analysis so minute in every detail in any language. Anybody not following your blog and is still following Indian elections is either a fool or is simply not serious about his/her politics

  6. Preeti Kale

    A very good ratings system which looks absolutely neutral

    In summary there are

    Super Positive – 6
    Positive – 20
    Average – 12
    Below Avg – 9
    Negative – 6

    Which means Bjp is already winning 26 and can win atleast 8 out of 12 average seats and 3 out of 9 below average seats if modi wave helps. So bjp is winning 37 seats out of 53 which is not bad at all considering that it can win another 10 or 12 in remaining 27 taking its tally to 50

    Keep up the gud workk

  7. Dr. Dipankar Deb

    Preeti, you should not count 3 out of 9 in below average section. Since these are below average count only 1. Also count 6 out of 12 in the average ones. So that makes it 34/53.

  8. Pingback: Narendra Modi may have a fight on his hands in Varanasi | chunaav

  9. DHARAMPAL CHHIKARA

    NDA GETTING FULL MAJORITY. SEE THE NDA SEAT TALLY COMPILED ON APRIL 6, 2014 WITH SELF EXPERINCE OF ACTIVE PARTICIPATION IN INDIAN GENERAL ELCTIONS FROM 1962 ONWARD. LIST AS FOLLOWS:
    NDA SEATS IN ELECTION 2014 STATEWISE
    THE FOLLOWING SEAT ESTIMATION FOR NDA IS OBTAINED FROM THE DATA COLLECTED FROM RECENT OPINION POLLS GIVEN BY TV CHANNELS SUCH AS :– ABP NEWS, CNN IBN, NDTV, INDIA TODAY GROUP AND NON TV INTERNET WEB SITES SUCH AS :–IBTL, FIVE FORTY THREE,POLITICSPARTY.COM , POLITICALBABA BLOG AND MANY OTHER LOCAL STATE WISE SOURCES . THIS ESTIMATION IS UPDATED ON 6TH APRIL 2014. ACCORDING TO THIS ESTIMATION NDA IS GOING TO FORM A STABLE GOVERNMENT UNDER NARENDRA MODI AS PRIME MINISTER.
    (1). ANDHRA PRADESH:–( BJP+TDP)=(3+14)=17 (2). ASSAM:–BJP=5 (3). BIHAR:–(BJP+LJP+RSLP)=(26+3+1)=3O (4). JHARKHAND:–BJP=11 (5). GOA:–BJP=2
    (6). GUJARAT:–=BJP =24 (7). HARYANA:–(BJP+HJC+INLD)=(5+1+3)=9 (8). HIMACHAL
    PRADESH:–BJP=4 (9). J&K:–BJP=2 (10). KARNATKA:–BJP=18 (11). KERALA:–BJP=1
    (12). MADHYA PRADESH:–BJP=27 (13). CHHATTISGARH:–BJP=9 (14). MAHARASHTRA:–
    (BJP+SS+MNS)=(21+16+1)=38 (15). ODISHA:–BJP=7 (16). PUNJAB:–(BJP+SAD)=(2+5)=7
    (17). RAJASTHAN:–BJP=24 (18). TAMIL NADU:–(BJP+DMDK+MDMK+PMK)=(3+2+2+2)=9
    (19). UTTRA PRADESH:–BJP=58 (20). UTTRAKHAND:–BJP=5 (21). WEST BENGAL:–BJP=1
    (22). DELHI:–BJP=6 SMALLER STATES:–(BJP+ALLIES)=(2+3)=5 (23):–UNIOIN TERRITORIES:–
    BJP=3 TOTAL NDA=322 BJP TOTAL SEATS=269 ALLIES=53

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